Published October 4, 2026 in Market Update

Primary market inventory is tighter than the national picture

By Whitney Macias

Real estate, Primary market

The National Association of Realtors reported national supply at 4.9 months as of October 4, 2026. That sounds like breathing room. But the Real Estate Data Aggregator counted only 674 homes for sale across the Primary market in the three months ending July 31, 2026, down 23.3% from a year before. Fewer choices mean more preparation, on both sides of a transaction.

New listings are also thinner. The Real Estate Data Aggregator recorded 1,039 new listings in the Primary market for the three months ending July 31, 2026. That is down 14.3% from the same period a year before. Less fresh supply coming to market means buyers have fewer chances to find a fit, and sellers face less competition from neighbors.

Nationally, Realtor.com reported active listings up 6.3% from a year ago as of October 1, 2026. The Primary market is moving in the opposite direction. That gap matters. Buyers here are working with a smaller pool than buyers in most other parts of the country.

Rates add another layer of pressure

Freddie Mac put the average 30-year fixed rate at 7.28% as of October 1, 2026. CNBC reported the average contract rate for conforming 30-year loans at 7.30% that same week. Realtor.com noted rates crossed 7% in late September for the first time since January 2025. Higher rates slow some buyers down. That can create a small window for prepared buyers, but it also reminds sellers that pricing carefully matters more than ever.

How each ZIP code read in the three months ending July 31, 2026

The tight overall inventory does not tell the same story in every neighborhood. The Real Estate Data Aggregator counted just 19 homes for sale in ZIP 95819, down 52.5% year over year, with a median sale price of $813,000, up 6.3%. ZIP 95695 had 39 homes for sale, down 49.4%, and 45.8% of homes went under contract within two weeks of listing. Those are very different conditions from ZIP 95835, where 145 homes were for sale and supply was actually up 2.8%.

Where supply tightened most

ZIP 95757 and 95819 each saw homes for sale fall by more than half compared with a year earlier. That kind of drop compresses choices quickly. Buyers in those areas need to be ready to move. Sellers there have real leverage, but pricing still needs to be grounded in what actually sold nearby.

Speed: some ZIPs are moving fast

ZIP 95819 sat at a median of just 8 days on market. That is 3 days shorter than a year before, per the Real Estate Data Aggregator. ZIP 95818 was at 12 days, 10 days shorter than the prior year. Not every home sold that quickly, of course. ZIP 95695 and 95757 both sat at 34 days, though 95695 saw days on market grow 16 days longer year over year. Knowing your specific street matters as much as knowing your ZIP.

Prices: a mixed picture

Some ZIPs saw prices rise. The Real Estate Data Aggregator put the median sale price in ZIP 95819 at $813,000, up 6.3% year over year. ZIP 95818 came in at $715,000, up 6.8%. ZIP 95833 reached $475,500, up 5.4%. Other ZIPs dipped a little. ZIP 95825 slipped 3% to $405,000. ZIP 95834 edged down 1.6% to $487,000. ZIP 95757 fell 2.1% to $685,000. Price direction is not uniform, and that is worth knowing before you set a number.

What sellers are getting at the close

Most ZIPs are closing very close to list price. The Real Estate Data Aggregator put the average sale-to-list ratio at 101.8% in ZIP 95819 and 101.7% in ZIP 95818. ZIP 95834 and 95825 both came in at 100.3%. ZIP 95695 was at 99%, and ZIP 95838 at 99.1%. The gap between the strongest and weakest ZIP is just under 3 points. That is not enormous, but it is real, and it reflects how differently each pocket is behaving.

How often homes sold above list price

In ZIP 95819, the Real Estate Data Aggregator found that 51.7% of homes sold above list price in the three months ending July 31, 2026. ZIP 95818 was at 46.3%, and ZIP 95776 at 39.4%. ZIP 95838 came in at 38.4%. At the other end, ZIP 95835 was at 25.2% and ZIP 95695 at 26.2%. Even in the slower ZIPs, roughly 1 in 4 homes still went above asking. Pricing precisely still pays.

The national context

The National Association of Realtors reported that existing-home sales decreased 2.0% in August 2026, though sales are up 1.6% year to date through the first eight months of 2026. National supply at 4.9 months is the highest in over ten years, per the National Association of Realtors. Realtor.com noted that active listings nationally rose 6.3% from a year ago. Our Primary market, with supply down 23.3%, is reading very differently from that national trend.

These numbers cover the three months ending July 31, 2026. One street can read very differently from its whole ZIP code. If you want to know what is actually happening on your block, I am glad to take a closer look with you.