Published October 18, 2026 in Market Update

Primary market inventory is down even with mortgage rates at 7.40%

By Whitney Macias

Real estate, Primary market

Freddie Mac put the 30-year fixed rate at 7.40% as of October 15, 2026. That is a three-year high. Most people would expect that to push more homes onto the market as sellers try to get ahead of slowing demand. In the Primary market, the opposite happened.

The Real Estate Data Aggregator counted 685 homes for sale across the Primary market in the three months ending August 31, 2026. That is 17.5% fewer than the same period a year before. New listings fell 10.4% over the same stretch. Fewer sellers came to market even as rates climbed. For a homeowner thinking about listing, less competition is worth understanding.

Nationally, the picture looks different. The National Association of Realtors reported inventory at 1.60 million homes in September 2026. Realtor.com reported for-sale listings growing nearly 7% year over year across the U.S. The Primary market is tightening while the national supply is growing. That gap matters when you are pricing a home here.

What rates are doing to buyers

Freddie Mac's 7.40% average as of October 15, 2026 is real pressure on buyers. The National Association of Realtors counted 3.99 million existing-home sales nationally in September 2026, and national prices were up just 1.3%. Buyers are still moving, but carefully. The right home, priced well, still finds attention. The wrong price sits.

How each ZIP code read in the three months ending August 31, 2026

The market-wide numbers tell one story. Each ZIP tells its own. Here is how the Real Estate Data Aggregator counted them.

Speed: which ZIPs went under contract fastest

The Real Estate Data Aggregator tracked the share of homes that went under contract within two weeks of listing. In some ZIPs, more than half of homes moved that quickly.

ZIP 95819 stood out. The Real Estate Data Aggregator counted 64.2% of homes going under contract within two weeks of listing, up 24.6 points from the same period a year before. Median days on market there was just 8 days. The sale-to-list ratio came in at 101.2%, and 51.6% of homes sold above list price. Supply in 95819 was just 1.3 months.

ZIP 95695 also moved quickly. The Real Estate Data Aggregator showed 51.3% of homes under contract within two weeks, up 10.5 points from a year before. Inventory there fell 44.2% year over year, the sharpest drop in the market. Months of supply came in at 1.7, down 1.6 months from last year.

Where prices dipped

Not every ZIP saw prices climb. The Real Estate Data Aggregator showed the median sale price in 95757 fell 3.5% to $685,000 compared with a year before. In 95834, the median dipped 1.8% to $490,000. In 95838, it slipped 1.6% to $379,000. Homes in those ZIPs still sold, but buyers had a bit more room to work with on price.

Inventory by ZIP: where supply is tightest

ZIP 95819 had just 1.3 months of supply. ZIP 95695 had 1.7 months, down 1.6 months from a year before. ZIP 95757 had 1.8 months, down 1.8 months from last year. On the other end, 95825 and 95834 each sat near 3.4 to 3.5 months. More choices exist in those ZIPs, but buyers should still come with a clear plan.

What this means if you are thinking about listing

Fewer sellers came to market in the three months ending August 31, 2026. The Real Estate Data Aggregator counted 986 new listings across the Primary market, down 10.4% from a year before. Total homes for sale fell 17.5%. That means less competition for the sellers who did list. Homes that were priced well and showed well still found buyers.

That said, not every home sold fast. In 95834, the median days on market was 40 days, up 1 day from a year before. In 95838, it was 34 days, up 8 days. Pricing still matters. A home priced ahead of what the market will bear will sit, even in a tight market.

What this means if you are buying

Freddie Mac's 7.40% rate as of October 15, 2026 is real. It changes monthly payments. But buyers are still moving. The Real Estate Data Aggregator counted 853 homes sold across the Primary market in the three months ending August 31, 2026, up 0.9% from a year before. The market did not stop. It just requires more preparation and clear decisions.

In the tightest ZIPs, hesitation costs. In 95819, the median home went under contract in 8 days. In 95695, it was 22 days. Knowing what you want and what you can move on quickly is what separates buyers who close from buyers who wait.