Published October 11, 2026 in Market Update

Inventory is down across the Primary market, even as national supply is higher

By Whitney Macias

Real estate, Primary market

The National Association of Realtors reported national months of supply at 4.9 months, the highest level in over ten years. That sounds like relief for buyers everywhere. But the Real Estate Data Aggregator counted 685 homes for sale across the Primary market in the three months ending August 31, 2026. That is down 17.5% from a year ago. The national number and the local number are pointing in opposite directions.

Fewer homes coming to market while sales hold nearly flat means the supply squeeze is real. Pricing and timing still need to be read at the neighborhood level, not from a national report.

Rates are adding pressure on both sides

Freddie Mac put the average 30-year fixed rate at 7.40% as of October 8, 2026. The 15-year averaged 6.73% the same week. Realtor.com reported that mortgage rates reached their highest level in nearly three years that week. Rates above 7% keep some sellers from moving, which helps explain why new listings fell 10.4% across the Primary market. Fewer sellers means fewer choices for buyers, and that keeps prices supported even where sales volume dipped.

Supply by ZIP code: the range is wide

The Real Estate Data Aggregator shows months of supply ranging from 1.3 months in 95819 to 3.5 months in 95825 for the three months ending August 31, 2026. That is a meaningful spread. A ZIP at 1.3 months behaves very differently from one at 3.5 months, even though both sit well below the 4.9 months the National Association of Realtors reported nationally.

Where homes are moving fastest

The Real Estate Data Aggregator counted that 64.2% of homes in 95819 went under contract within two weeks of listing in the three months ending August 31, 2026. That is up 24.6 points from a year ago. In 95695, 51.3% went under contract within two weeks, up 10.5 points. These are not slow markets. Homes priced well in tight ZIP codes are still finding buyers quickly.

Prices: mostly up, with a few ZIP codes dipping

The Real Estate Data Aggregator shows median sale prices rose in most ZIP codes in the three months ending August 31, 2026. The biggest gain was in 95825, up 13.2% to $450,000. 95818 rose 11.5% to $766,500. Not every ZIP followed. 95757 dipped 3.5% to $685,000, and 95834 slipped 1.8% to $490,000. A small price decline does not mean a ZIP is soft overall. Supply and speed matter just as much as the median.

How each ZIP compares at a glance

What the national picture misses

Realtor.com reported that active listings nationwide are up 6.7% from a year ago. The Federal Housing Finance Agency reported U.S. house prices rose 0.3% from the prior month in July. Those are broad signals. The Real Estate Data Aggregator shows the Primary market moving differently: inventory down 17.5%, new listings down 10.4%, and most ZIP codes still well below four months of supply. National trends give context. Local counts give you the real picture.

One street can read very differently from the whole ZIP code. If you want to know what the numbers look like for your specific block, send me your address and I will pull the closest read I can.